- 91% of businesses report an impact from geopolitical developments on their supply chains, yet 66% still prioritize price over supply resilience
- 86% of businesses expect raw material prices to rise over the next 12 months – the highest level since 2020
- Only 7% of businesses have fully integrated AI in raw materials management, despite widespread recognition of its benefits
- Only 2% without changes to their sourcing strategy: 48% of businesses are reinforcing sourcing cooperations, 46% dual or multiple sourcing, and 41% nearshoring in response to supply chain risk
October 08, 2026. Businesses are under mounting pressure to turn raw material risk awareness into action, according to new research by procurement and supply chain management consultancy Inverto, part of Boston Consulting Group. The 2026 Raw Materials Study surveyed 354 managing directors, board members and procurement decision-makers across Europe and the Asia/Pacific Region (APAC).
The study finds that awareness of raw material risk has never been higher: 91% of businesses report an impact from geopolitical developments on the logistics and availability of raw materials, while 99% expect energy market volatility to affect their sourcing conditions over the next 12 months. 86% presume raw material prices to rise over the next 12 months – the highest level since 2020.
Recognizing risk is not the same as managing it
Yet this awareness has not translated into a shift of procurement objectives. 66% of businesses still prioritize price over supply resilience when sourcing raw materials, and only 7% of participants have fully adopted AI solutions across their raw material management processes. However, a regional comparison reveals just how widely AI implementation maturity varies. The APAC region is far ahead of Europe – 50% of companies there are already at an advanced stage of AI maturity, while in European countries only 10-30% reach this level.
“The data tells a consistent story: businesses know exactly where the risks sit, but the way they buy hasn’t caught up with that knowledge,” says Justus Brinkmann, Principal at Inverto. “As long as cost remains the primary reference for procurement decisions, resilience will keep losing out.”
Industrial commodities under pressure
Price expectations on raw materials have reached a new high: 86% of respondents forecast increases over the next 12 months. Within this overall picture, expectations of price rises are not evenly distributed. Crude oil is seen as the industrial commodity at greatest risk of price increases, cited by 28% of businesses, representing an increase of 11 percentage points compared to 2025. Further price increases are expected for chemicals (23%), iron and steel (22%) and Aluminium (21%).
Participants assume price increases also for agricultural commodities. The greatest risks are seen in oils and fats, with 37% of respondents expecting prices to rise, and in fertilizer-related inputs (31%).
A similar pattern is evident regarding supply security. The sharpest increase in presumed supply problems is seen in crude oil and power, rising by 15 and 13 percentage points respectively compared to 2025 (to 27% and 21% respectively), followed closely by iron and steel (up 9 percentage points to 20%). Furthermore, 31% of companies now anticipate shortages of fertiliser-related inputs and oils and fats. The expected supply risk for agricultural products has risen by a striking 24 percentage points compared to last year – the largest shift in the survey.
Concentrated supplier risk compounds the problem
To respond to mounting raw material risks, the vast majority of companies (98%) change their sourcing strategies: Sourcing cooperations are the most common response, adopted by 48% of companies, followed by reinforced dual or multiple sourcing (46%) and nearshoring (41%) –only 2% reporting no change at all. The main drivers behind this transformation are raw material shortages (40%), price risks (38%), and geopolitical risks (36%).
“Diversification is essential, but it only works if it’s built on real transparency,” Brinkmann explains. “A broad supplier list on paper can still hide a single point of failure underneath. Businesses need visibility into where their suppliers are sourcing from — otherwise, diversification plans can look robust on the surface and still collapse at the first shock.”
Pricing strategies are shifting too
Businesses are also reconsidering how they negotiate prices for raw materials with their suppliers. The most widely used model is index-linked agreements with an escalation clause, which are now used by 31% of businesses.
The sharpest rise in adoption occurred in predefined price-increase adjustment agreements, which have risen by 10 percentage points to reach 27%, as companies look for more predictable ways to absorb volatility. Just 8% still purchase based on daily spot market pricing.
Six priorities for turning risk awareness into resilience
Based on the study’s findings, Brinkmann recommends six priorities to build lasting resilience into businesses raw materials strategies:
1. Treat geopolitical and policy exposure as a structural planning factor, not a one-time fix, through continuous risk monitoring and rapid-response protocols.
2. Turn sourcing diversification from reaction into deliberate design, by building dual-sourcing footprints, qualifying alternative suppliers, and stress-testing networks.
3. Reward resilience, not just price, by embedding resilience KPIs and total-cost metrics into procurement targets.
4. Design flexibility in products from early stages on, with procurement and engineering collaborating early on material substitution opportunities and usage reduction.
5. Move from opportunistic buying to structured price management, using a category-specific pricing playbook with index-linked and price-adjustment clauses.
6. Scale AI by fixing the foundations, not by adding more pilots – investing in trusted data, governance, cybersecurity and integration rather than in isolated use cases.
“Uncertainty is directly translating into higher costs” concludes Brinkmann. “Businesses need to prepare for that now by talking to their suppliers early on and agreeing on solutions.”
The 2026 Raw Materials Study is based on an online survey of 354 decision-makers, conducted between May and July 2026 across European marketsas well as the Asia/Pacific region. The majority of participants works in materials & process industry, food & beverages, and automotive & mobility sectors. Full study results are available at Raw Materials Study 2026: Key Findings | Inverto.
About Inverto
Inverto is a leading global consultancy specializing in strategic procurement and supply chain management. The consultancy goes beyond pure cost management to deliver business value and a competitive edge for its clients. Inverto transforms procurement and supply chain functions, enabling long-term success by fostering innovation, resilience, and sustainability.
Operating under the umbrella of BCG, Inverto expands BCGs extensive offerings with a comprehensive array of procurement optimization solutions. Inverto currently employs more than 700 experts across three continents. Clients are globally renowned brands from all industries, as well as the world’s leading private equity firms.
For more information, please visit www.inverto.com
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Ina Ullrich
Press Relations Manager